A Thesis Index is a basket of prediction market positions, curated by a publisher to express one specific thesis. It avoids the structural problems every alternative carries:Documentation Index
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| Instrument | Drawback | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| Stocks / ETFs | Correlated assets come with unnecessary exposure to company earnings, management, and supply chain noise. AI could dominate and $NVDA could still fail. | Noisy |
| Options | Closest way to bet on directional conviction, but built for continuous price movement while macro outcomes are mostly binary. | Imperfect |
| Prediction Markets | The correct underlying primitive, but managing 15 separate positions to express one thesis is operationally impossible for most. | Wrong UX |
Bullish AI, Bearish Regulation
Publishers earn from conviction
Fees vary per Thesis Index and are set by the publisher. They can include a performance fee on gains, a withdrawal fee on exits, or both.Jump right in
How it works
Pricing, NAV and Mechanics.