Thesis Index - Cleopetra

A Thesis Index is a basket of prediction market positions, curated by a publisher to express one specific thesis. It avoids the structural problems every alternative carries:

Instrument	Drawback	Verdict
Stocks / ETFs	Correlated assets come with unnecessary exposure to company earnings, management, and supply chain noise. AI could dominate and $NVDA could still fail.	Noisy
Options	Closest way to bet on directional conviction, but built for continuous price movement while macro outcomes are mostly binary.	Imperfect
Prediction Markets	The correct underlying primitive, but managing 15 separate positions to express one thesis is operationally impossible for most.	Wrong UX

Here’s a Thesis Index, end to end:

Bullish AI, Bearish Regulation

Example index — AI capability outpaces expectations through 2026

Publishers compose a basket of prediction market positions. The protocol deploys it across the underlying markets - Kalshi, Polymarket, and others. Traders hold index shares that represent the whole thesis.

Publishers earn from conviction

Fees vary per Thesis Index and are set by the publisher. They can include a performance fee on gains, a withdrawal fee on exits, or both.

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How it works

Pricing, NAV and Mechanics.